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Price Growth in Regional Cities Offset By Declines in the South

Across the UK, the price of a property across increased by an average of 3.3% in the 12 months to November 2018

Residential Property Housing Market Price Growth Predictions 2019

House price inflation is at its lowest level for the month of November in 5 years across 20 of the UK’s major cities.

The findings come from Hometrack’s UK Cities House Price Index, which reveals the average cost of a house in the 20-city index grew by 2.6% in the 12 months to November, equating to an increase of £6,500.

Whilst it is lower compared to the 3.6% rate in November 2017 and 2013's level of 7.8%, it is up from the previous month's rate of 2.5%.

This is almost half the 5% rate of growth Hometrack forecasted for 2018 at the end of 2017, noting that the pace of growth was slower in the regions than they had anticipated, although their 3% prediction for the UK matches their findings.

Across the whole of the UK, price inflation similarly eased from 3.8% last year to 3.3% in November 2018, as static or negative growth in Oxford (0.0%), London (-0.1%), Cambridge (-1.1%), and Aberdeen (-4.1%) offsets otherwise robust growth in the regional cities.

Three of the index’s 20 cities had growth of over 6% - Edinburgh, Manchester, and Birmingham – whilst Leicester, Liverpool, and Nottingham also recorded inflation of more than double the 20-city index average.

However, just four cities have registered a higher rate of annual house price inflation in November 2018 compared with the same period in 2017; Manchester (6.6% versus 6.2%), Liverpool (5.3% versus 4.2%), Cardiff (5.1% versus 3.9%), and Newcastle (4.8% versus 2.1%).

Looking ahead to 2019, Hometrack expects UK house prices will rise by 2%, which takes into account a further 2% decline in prices in London and more moderated growth across the regions.

Meanwhile, it forecasts house price inflation of around 5% for some of the country’s most affordable housing markets, including Liverpool and Glasgow, in 2019.

According to the latest index by the Office for National Statistics, the highest rates of house price growth in year to October were recorded in the North West, Yorkshire & the Humber, and the Midlands.

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